On-Line Computer Programs for the Analysis of Border-Control Problems

by G. F. Schilling, M. Turner

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Complex interactions among military, technical, geopolitical, and socioeconomic factors constitute major problems for counterinfiltration programs intended to inhibit the movement of hostile forces across defined boundaries. This report describes two versions of an online computer program that incorporates the methodology of a model of border control developed in RM-6250; it enables the user to analyze insurgency situations without mathematical manipulations. The computerized versions of the model permit the ready investigation of specific situations and the rapid testing of new concepts with regard to their probable utility under different contingencies. It also permits testing of quantitative sensitivity analyses of candidate border security systems and programs. Outputs include a detailed account and projected time sequence of the number of guerrillas in the area of interest as a result of infiltration, interdiction, recruitment, and attrition. For any future date, these numerical data are given in terms of actual numbers, area densities, and rates of change.

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