Cover: Building an Energy Demand Signed Digraph II

Building an Energy Demand Signed Digraph II

Choosing Edges and Signs and Calculating Stability

by Fred S. Roberts

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Describes a methodology for choosing the edges and signs for an energy demand signed digraph using the subjective judgments of groups of experts. The method is illustrated using energy use in the transportation sector, in particular, the intraregional commuter transportation sector. A set of nine nodes (variables) for an energy demand signed digraph for this sector was chosen as a result of two experimental rounds described in R-927/1. A third round obtains expert judgments on edges and signs and the results are combined to build a completed energy demand signed digraph. This digraph is then analyzed using the mathematical tools developed in R-926. Stability is determined for each strategy corresponding to changing the sign of an edge. Stable and unstable starting nodes and feedback loops are identified. Feasibility of the stabilizing strategies is also discussed.

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