Estimating Bomber Penetration and Weapons Effectiveness

by Frederic S. Nyland

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Unclassified abridged version of R-1278, presenting methods for examining the effects of bomber operations against air defenses under a variety of conditions, including the effects of various penetration aids. Based on closed form equations, the expected value models are designed for rapid estimation of outcomes. Bomber survival probability in a single battle is calculated separately for cases in which the interceptors are centrally controlled and cases where they search independently for penetrators. Both models include the effects of various bomber defense missiles, (BDMs) and explicitly treat the effects of long-range BDMs launched before the defense detects the penetrating force. A further extension (which could also be used with other models) examines the configuration of bomber payload to maximize weapons arriving at target. The expected value approach is extended to handle unexpected outcomes. Explicit account is taken of uncertainties throughout. JOSS programs are appended, including routines for decoy discrimination and for AWACS survival.

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