Estimating the Market for Computers in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe.

by John P. Stein

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The potential market for Western computers in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union (EESU) is the difference between EESU's demand if Western computers were readily available, estimated from a demand function fitted to West European countries, and the number obtainable without additional Western imports. Values for unknown parameters are chosen to upward bias estimated market size. The average number of computers exported from all Western countries to EESU during 1974-1985 may reach 2,150 per year, and their cumulative value may reach $4.6 billion. If the U.S. share of the market were 75 percent, U.S. exports would average about $290 million annually. That would represent a 4 percent increase in the estimated overseas shipments of U.S. computer firms in 1976, a smaller percentage thereafter. So the worldwide market for U.S. computers will expand only slightly with the opening of the EESU market. This methodology could be applied to other EESU markets. 40 pp. Ref.

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