The potential market for Western computers in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union (EESU) is the difference between EESU's demand if Western computers were readily available, estimated from a demand function fitted to West European countries, and the number obtainable without additional Western imports. Values for unknown parameters are chosen to upward bias estimated market size. The average number of computers exported from all Western countries to EESU during 1974-1985 may reach 2,150 per year, and their cumulative value may reach $4.6 billion. If the U.S. share of the market were 75 percent, U.S. exports would average about $290 million annually. That would represent a 4 percent increase in the estimated overseas shipments of U.S. computer firms in 1976, a smaller percentage thereafter. So the worldwide market for U.S. computers will expand only slightly with the opening of the EESU market. This methodology could be applied to other EESU markets. 40 pp. Ref.
This report is part of the RAND Corporation Report series. The report was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 1993 that represented the principal publication documenting and transmitting RAND's major research findings and final research.
Our mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective, and nonpartisan, we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence. For more information, visit www.rand.org/about/research-integrity.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.