Results of simulating the addition of a large body of water to the Sahara Desert using the RAND version of the Mintz-Arakawa general circulation model. The simulated lake is a relatively small perturbation to the earth's boundary condition and was chosen to test the hypothesis that an observable and statistically significant change would be produced in the local circulation. The flux and flux divergence of water vapor over North Africa was studied to determine where the water added to the atmosphere by the lake would be precipitated. A significant change in precipitation was subsequently observed over the selected area. A new statistical measure is described and used to measure the significance of the observed change. 40 pp. Ref.
This report is part of the RAND Corporation Report series. The report was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 1993 that represented the principal publication documenting and transmitting RAND's major research findings and final research.
This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.