A Water-Quality Simulation Model for Well Mixed Estuaries and Coastal Seas

Describes the water-quality simulation of post-rainstorm coliform bacteria distributions in Jamaica Bay, New York, by use of models of the drainage basins surrounding the bay and a water-quality simulation of the bay itself. A stochastic analysis method was introduced to assess the behavior and resolving power of the water-quality simulation model and to derive an optimal estimate of missing input data. The estimates obtained by simulation agree well with those obtained by field measurements, except near Bergen Basin, where an unknown source of coliform bacteria exists. The origin and extent of this input should be determined from new field surveys. Since the response to a rainstorm of all major components of this urban estuarine system can be determined, the models described in this report will provide the basis for the optimal design and management of an auxiliary treatment system for sewer overflows of the drainage basins around the bay.