An evaluation of changes in Cuba's foreign policy perspectives, and their domestic bases. The Cuban Revolution has been institutionalized; Fidel Castro's strengthened political power now rests on an expanded coalition of military and technocratic elites. New Soviet commitments and postponement of debts until 1986 have boosted Cuba's economy. Cuba's foreign policy will likely emphasize six ambivalent, even contradictory elements: Toward the Soviet Union (1) participation in detente, which may mask (2) a deeper interest in reducing economic dependence from Moscow without sacrificing good relations; toward the United States (3) cautious negotiations for advanced technology and trade, and (4) selective nonviolent U.S. confrontations; toward Latin America (5) unity and alliance with progressive, nationalist governments, possibly extending in the future to Cuban provision of (6) conventional military assistance to an ally. Further, the processes of detente and normalization may reduce Cuba's significance within the inter-American community.
Gonzalez, Edward and David Ronfeldt, Post-Revolutionary Cuba in a Changing World. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1975. https://www.rand.org/pubs/reports/R1844.html. Also available in print form.
Gonzalez, Edward and David Ronfeldt, Post-Revolutionary Cuba in a Changing World, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, R-1844-ISA, 1975. As of June 15, 2021: https://www.rand.org/pubs/reports/R1844.html