Predicting the New York City Welfare Caseload

by David W. Lyon, Mark D. Menchik, Gerard Blais

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Using a modification of the New York City Department of Social Services caseload model, this report identifies the reasons for recent increases in the city's welfare caseload; predicts the effects of economic recession and inflation on the caseload for fiscal year 1975 and the first six months of fiscal year 1976; presents estimates of the additional budgetary cost to the city of caseload increases in fiscal years 1975 and 1976 over the cost level reached in fiscal year 1974; and compares the actual caseload with the predicted caseload for the fiscal year 1975-1976 period. The model predicted the percent change in the caseload during 1975 within 1 percent of the actual rate of change.

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