The Constrained Officer Force Progression Model

A Steady-State Mathematical Model of the U.S. Air Force Officer Structure

by Herb Shukiar, S. H. Miller, Laura Critchlow Sammis


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The model described is one of a set of computer-based models designed to provide personnel planners with broadly based aggregated data and detailed officer inventories and flows reflecting the effects of policies and conditions under investigation. Air Force personnel planners often face policy alternatives that lead to changes in the size of the officer force, the rated officer force, accessions, training rates, loss rates, promotion policies, or augmentation opportunities. When the planner incorporates these alternatives into the constraints model, the model then estimates the effects of these changes on the number of officers who are eliminated, promoted, augmented, or who are otherwise changing from one state to another. The report presents several highly simplified numerical examples and compares this model with other models in the set.

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