Protecting an Estuary from Floods - A Policy Analysis of the Oosterschelde

The second volume in a series of reports describing the methodology and results of a joint research venture between RAND and the Netherlands Rijkswaterstaat. The POLANO project was founded to help the Dutch government analyze the different alternatives (open, closed, and storm-surge barrier cases) for protecting the Oosterschelde region from North Sea floods. Volume II describes the methodology developed to estimate the likelihood and severity of flood damage to people, property, and land under each of the alternatives. These are subjected to many simulated threats expressed in terms of storm water levels. The methodology's damage estimates compared favorably with the actual damage observed in a severe 1953 storm. Also assessed is the reliability of the storm-surge barrier. The report demonstrates how security varies, in both the long-run and construction periods, with changes in the alternatives and assumptions.