An Appraisal of Models Used in Life Cycle Cost Estimation for USAF Aircraft Systems

by Kenneth E. Marks, H. G. Massey, Brent D. Bradley

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Although life cycle analysis is widely used as a management tool, considerable uncertainty still exists about its effectiveness with respect to economic tradeoffs, funding decisions, and resource allocations. This report evaluates some of the most widely used life cycle cost models: AFR l73-10 models (BACE and CACE); the Logistics Support Cost model; the Logistics Composite model; the MOD-METRIC model; AFM 26-3 Manpower Standards; Air Force Logistics Command Depot Maintenance Cost Equations; the DAPCA model; and the PRICE model. The models are rated within a framework incorporating a set of cycle cost elements and a set of cost driving factors. Color-coded illustrations summarize the results. The models are shown to have many shortcomings that limit their usefulness for life cycle analyses in which estimates of absolute, incremental cost are required. Specific areas are identified where driving factor/cost element combinations are not adequately addressed.

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