Linking Uncertain Energy and Environmental Models

Executive Summary

by David Leinweber, Ray Squitieri

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Summarizes the results of a RAND study of models used to support policy decisions. This work focuses specifically on energy and environmental issues, but the methods and conclusions are applicable to any field characterized by poor data quality and high degrees of uncertainty. The study clearly shows that in many policy models the uncertainties, which are usually unreported, overwhelm the reported results. What initially appears to be a problem, or an answer to a problem, is often just statistical noise.

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