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An econometric model of reenlistment decisions for Army National Guardsmen is developed using data collected from 2,876 surveys. The surveys were administered to Guardsmen with less than eight years of service who were making a reenlistment decision during 1978. The results of the model shows that a 10 percent increase in reserve pay would bring only a 2 percent increase in reenlistment rates. Since almost all Guardsmen are moonlighters, higher civilian job wage levels and hours worked bring lower reenlistment rates. Demographic composition and education level significantly affect reenlistment rates. Other things equal, women, blacks, and those who do not complete high school have higher reenlistment rates than their counterparts. Overall, the model predicts that reenlistment rates will more than double after 1978, thanks to a favorable demographic composition and the absence of draft motivated reservists.

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