The Changing Geographic Distribution of the Elderly

Estimating Net Migration Rates with Social Security Data

by Kevin F. McCarthy, Allan Abrahamse, Charles Hubay

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Although the aging of America's population represents a fundamental demographic shift with far-reaching implications, its pressures will be felt unevenly by the nation's localities. This report presents a straightforward procedure which state and local planning agencies can use to monitor the movement of elderly persons into and out of individual U.S. counties. The procedure uses readily available Social Security data to produce accurate estimates of elderly net migration rates. The report describes the procedure's method and rationale, documents the formal estimation model, explains how to apply the model, and furnishes an illustration to guide the user.

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