A Dynamic Retention Model for Air Force Officers

Theory and Estimates

by Glenn A. Gotz, John McCall

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This report describes the theory and methodology for estimating the parameters of a dynamic retention model for Air Force officers. The model was designed to estimate voluntary retention rates under a broad range of compensation, retirement, and personnel policies. It describes the decisionmaking process of individuals making stay/leave decisions over time in an uncertain environment, which allows it to predict policy changes that have no historical analogues. The report presents the theory and estimated parameters of the model, compares actual retention rates and those predicted by the model and two competing models, and examines five illustrative changes in compensation policies.

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