Selective Incapacitation Revisited

Why the High-Rate Offenders are Hard to Predict

Peter W. Greenwood, Susan Turner

ResearchPublished 1987

This is a final report of a project designed to explore the relationship between (1) self-reports of offenses and (2) recorded arrests as indicators of individual offense rates. The findings suggest that high-rate offenders cannot be accurately identified, either prospectively or retrospectively, on the basis of their arrest rates alone. More effort must be devoted to checking on the reliability of and resolving inconsistencies in the information provided by individual respondents. Unless it is possible to identify some specific characteristics of high-rate offenders or their recorded offenses that can distinguish their expected probability of arrest from the average experienced by all offenders, individual arrest rates will remain a poor predictor of individual offense rates within a chronic offender population.

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  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Available
  • Year: 1987
  • Print Format: Paperback
  • Paperback Pages: 70
  • Paperback Price: $25.00
  • Paperback ISBN/EAN: 978-0-8330-0782-7
  • Document Number: R-3397-NIJ

Citation

RAND Style Manual
Greenwood, Peter W. and Susan Turner, Selective Incapacitation Revisited: Why the High-Rate Offenders are Hard to Predict, RAND Corporation, R-3397-NIJ, 1987. As of September 12, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/reports/R3397.html
Chicago Manual of Style
Greenwood, Peter W. and Susan Turner, Selective Incapacitation Revisited: Why the High-Rate Offenders are Hard to Predict. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1987. https://www.rand.org/pubs/reports/R3397.html. Also available in print form.
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