Testing the Effects of Confidence- and Security-Building Measures in a Crisis

Two Political-Military Games

James P. Kahan, Marilee Lawrence, Richard E. Darilek, William M. Jones, Alan Platt, Philip J. Romero, William Schwabe, David A. Shlapak

ResearchPublished 1987

This report presents the results of two political-military games played at RAND in the spring of 1986 to investigate how possible European confidence- and security-building measures (CSBMs) might affect interaction between the United States and the Soviet Union in a crisis situation. The objective was to examine which of three hypotheses best describes the most likely effects of CSBMs in a crisis: (1) CSBMs can help make crucial distinctions/decisions; (2) CSBMs neither help nor harm decisionmaking; and (3) CSBMs can cause more harm than good. The games provided no evidence that CSBMs could reduce the risks of miscalculation or misunderstanding. However, neither did the CSBMs appear to exacerbate misunderstandings. The players tended to focus on their own beliefs and to ignore evidence bearing on the intentions of the other side. The study indicates a need for further research on such important issues as the interplay between intimidation and surprise.

Order a Print Copy

Format
Paperback
Page count
74 pages
List Price
$25.00
Buy link
Add to Cart

Document Details

  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Available
  • Year: 1987
  • Print Format: Paperback
  • Paperback Pages: 74
  • Paperback Price: $25.00
  • Paperback ISBN/EAN: 978-0-8330-0851-0
  • Document Number: R-3517-USDP

Citation

RAND Style Manual
Kahan, James P., Marilee Lawrence, Richard E. Darilek, William M. Jones, Alan Platt, Philip J. Romero, William Schwabe, and David A. Shlapak, Testing the Effects of Confidence- and Security-Building Measures in a Crisis: Two Political-Military Games, RAND Corporation, R-3517-USDP, 1987. As of September 12, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/reports/R3517.html
Chicago Manual of Style
Kahan, James P., Marilee Lawrence, Richard E. Darilek, William M. Jones, Alan Platt, Philip J. Romero, William Schwabe, and David A. Shlapak, Testing the Effects of Confidence- and Security-Building Measures in a Crisis: Two Political-Military Games. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1987. https://www.rand.org/pubs/reports/R3517.html. Also available in print form.
BibTeX RIS

This publication is part of the RAND report series. The report series, a product of RAND from 1948 to 1993, represented the principal publication documenting and transmitting RAND's major research findings and final research.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.

RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.