Onward Through the Fog

Uncertainty and Management Adaptation in Systems Analysis and Design

James S. Hodges, Raymond A. Pyles

ResearchPublished 1990

Policy analysis has always involved great uncertainty. Tools have been available for handling some of that uncertainty, but policy analysis work in many fields has fallen into stereotyped problem formulations and analytical approaches. In particular, treatments of uncertainty are typically incomplete and often conceptually wrong. This report argues that these shortcomings produce pervasive systematic biases in analysis. It describes and discusses the common mode of policy analysis and identifies its two main shortcomings — omission of crucial sources of uncertainty and neglect of systems' ability to respond to the unexpected. It categorizes some varieties of uncertainty relevant to policy analysis and presents examples of ways they are commonly represented. Finally, it discusses designing and evaluating systems, and presents a collection of generic strategies for uncertain situations.

Order a Print Copy

Format
Paperback
Page count
43 pages
List Price
$20.00
Buy link
Add to Cart

Document Details

  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Available
  • Year: 1990
  • Print Format: Paperback
  • Paperback Pages: 43
  • Paperback Price: $20.00
  • Paperback ISBN/EAN: 978-0-8330-1073-5
  • Document Number: R-3760-AF/A/OSD

Citation

RAND Style Manual
Hodges, James S. and Raymond A. Pyles, Onward Through the Fog: Uncertainty and Management Adaptation in Systems Analysis and Design, RAND Corporation, R-3760-AF/A/OSD, 1990. As of September 12, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/reports/R3760.html
Chicago Manual of Style
Hodges, James S. and Raymond A. Pyles, Onward Through the Fog: Uncertainty and Management Adaptation in Systems Analysis and Design. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1990. https://www.rand.org/pubs/reports/R3760.html. Also available in print form.
BibTeX RIS

Research conducted by

This publication is part of the RAND report series. The report series, a product of RAND from 1948 to 1993, represented the principal publication documenting and transmitting RAND's major research findings and final research.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.

RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.