Non-Prior Service Reserve Enlistments

Supply Estimates and Forecasts

by Hong W. Tan

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This report aims to provide Department of Defense policymakers with better information regarding the effects of demographic and macroeconomic variables and policy instruments, such as recruiting resources and relative military pay, on the supply of non-prior service (NPS) reserve personnel. A database was developed to estimate the effects of reserve recruiters, goals, relative military and civilian pay, the qualified youth population available to enlist in the military, and local unemployment rates on NPS enlistments in three Selected Reserve components: Army Reserve, Army National Guard, and Naval Reserve. The effects of competition for NPS recruits — both among reserve components and between the active and reserve components — were also investigated. Forecasts of NPS reserve enlistments were developed to assess the attainability of NPS projected goals under alternative economic scenarios.

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