Confidence in Estimated Airframe Costs: Uncertainty Assessment in Aggregate Predictions
Jan 1, 1972
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Presents generalized cost-estimating relationships for calculating development and production costs of aircraft airframes in a long-range planning context. The report presents separate estimating equations derived from historical data on 29 post-World War II military aircraft for the following cost elements: engineering, development support, flight test operations, tooling, manufacturing labor, manufacturing material, and quality control. An additional set of estimating equations is presented for prototype development. The estimating relationships are expressed as exponential equations derived by multiple regression techniques; these techniques relate costs or man-hours to aircraft physical and performance characteristics and to airframe production quantity. Also discussed are the analytical characteristics of the estimating relationships, the limitations that should be observed in their use, and a method of measuring uncertainty in the predicted airframe costs. Basic data, a computer program, and a user's guide are appended.
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