Groves and Lempert describe an application of their new analytic method to the challenge of water resource management in California. Scenarios play a prominent role in policy debates over climate change, but questions continue about how best to use them. The authors describe a new analytic method, based on robust decisionmaking, for suggesting narrative scenarios that emerge naturally from a decision analytic framework. The authors identify key scenarios, those most important to the choices facing decisionmakers, and find such cases with statistical analysis of datasets created by multiple runs of computer simulation models. The resulting scenarios can communicate quantitative judgments about uncertainty. These scenarios support a well-defined decision process without the drawbacks of currently available approaches. The paper closes with observations about the strengths and weaknesses of this new approach and how it might be applied more broadly to climate change policy questions.
Reprinted with permission from Global Environmental Change
, Vol. 17, No 1, 2007, pp 78-85. Copyright © 2006 by Elsevier Ltd.
Originally published in: Global Environmental Change: Human and and Policy Dimensions, Vol. 17, No. 1, pp. 78-85, February 2007.
This report is part of the RAND Corporation Reprint series. The Reprint was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1992 to 2011 that represented previously published journal articles, book chapters, and reports with the permission of the publisher. RAND reprints were formally reviewed in accordance with the publisher's editorial policy and compliant with RAND's rigorous quality assurance standards for quality and objectivity. For select current RAND journal articles, see External Publications.
Permission is given to duplicate this electronic document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND Permissions page.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.