Although Russia is still in quest of a viable, fully accepted role in Asia, it has been able to establish the main dimensions of its post-imperial foreign and security policy in the area--the pursuit of multipolarity; nonadversarial relations with all regional powers, enhanced collaboration in energy development; and an increased role in arms sales and technology transfer. The author examines the impact on Russia of three alternative future security scenarios: (1) Incremental change and no crisis would on balance prove favorable to Russian interests; (2) greatly enhanced regional accommodation and subregional integration would afford major economic and political opportunities for Russia; (3) a destabilized Asia would prove a disaster for Russia's political and economic opportunities in the area. However, a credible longer-term Russian role in Asian and Asia-Pacific security will ultimately depend on political and economic stability within Russia, which seems to be a distant prospect.
Originally published in: Russia and Asia : The Emerging Security Agenda, Gennady Chufrin, ed., Oxford University Press, pp. 447-473.
This report is part of the RAND Corporation Reprint series. The Reprint was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1992 to 2011 that represented previously published journal articles, book chapters, and reports with the permission of the publisher. RAND reprints were formally reviewed in accordance with the publisher's editorial policy and compliant with RAND's rigorous quality assurance standards for quality and objectivity. For select current RAND journal articles, see External Publications.
Our mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective, and nonpartisan, we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence. For more information, visit www.rand.org/about/principles.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.