Monte Carlo models for estimating reliability: an exploratory analysis.

by Sidney I. Firstman

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An analysis of the problem of a priori reliability estimating by means of the Monte Carlo method. The Monte Carlo model considered is used to predict system malfunctions that do not occur through component failure but occur because the entire system performs outside the bounds set by its specifications. It uses the stochastic properties of component performance to evaluate system output. The study demonstrates the usefulness of the method, the validity of the results, the unbiased nature of derived estimates, and the requirements for input data

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