A model for assessing the effect of maintenance on missile launch probability.

by Eloise E. Bean

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An analytical model designed as a tool to measure the effects of various operational modes and maintenance policies on ballistic-missile launch probability. The model is concerned with two elements of maintenance policy: operational mode and checkout frequency. The probability that the missile is alert when a launch order is given and will survive the countdown without failure is calculated as a function of these two variable elements of maintenance policy. Although the model itself cannot determine an optimal maintenance policy, the logistics planner is aided in selecting one that will produce the maximum probability of launch in a prescribed time period and in evaluating the effect of preferred policies on launch capability

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