Cost estimates as predictors of actual weapon costs: a study of major hardware articles

Robert Summers

ResearchPublished 1965

A statistical study of military cost estimates intended to be helpful in assessing the probable accuracy of cost estimates for major hardware articles of military systems still in development. Based on a sample of 68 cost estimates of major hardware articles in 22 weapon systems, it assesses their accuracy as predictors of actual costs. It is believed that the methods presented here provide a sensible way of using our imperfect information about the past to decrease the uncertainties about future hardware costs. This Memorandum is an abridgment rather than a revision of the original Memorandum (April 1962). Nothing new has been added, but certain classified material has been deleted.

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Summers, Robert, Cost estimates as predictors of actual weapon costs: a study of major hardware articles. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1965. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/RM3061.html.
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