A Discussion of Uncertainty in Cost Analysis (A Lecture for the AFSC Analysis Course)

by Gene Fisher

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One of a series of studies to assist with the preparation and teaching of a course in cost analysis concepts and techniques at the Air Force Institute of Technology. This Memorandum discusses the problem of uncertainty in cost analysis of future military systems and forces. Two major sources of uncertainty are outlined: requirements uncertainty and cost-estimating uncertainty. Several proposals for dealing with the problem are also presented.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Research memorandum series. The Research Memorandum was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 1973 that represented working papers meant to report current results of RAND research to appropriate audiences.

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