The Probability Distribution of Anti-Missile Missile Miss Distance Due to Observation and Guidance Noise

W. B. Kendall

ResearchPublished 1963

A study providing a simple method for determining the probability that an antimissile missile (AMM) will come within any given distance of an attacking ballistic missile. The work takes account of the possibility of Gaussian noise corrupting both the AMM guidance system and the observations made on the attacking missile. The study further considers the special case where only the root mean square miss distance of the AMM is known and where the errors in the observations made of the attacking missile are uncorrelated. For this case coefficients are determined which allow a system designer to determine how much the miss distance between the attacking missile and the AMM will be reduced by improving the accuracies of any or all of the observations made on the attacking missile.

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Kendall, W. B., The Probability Distribution of Anti-Missile Missile Miss Distance Due to Observation and Guidance Noise. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1963. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/RM3505.html.
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