An Empirical Test of Exponential Smoothing.

Max Astrachan, Craig C. Sherbrooke

ResearchPublished 1964

A comparative study of techniques for predicting spare parts demand. It attempts to discover the potential advantage of exponential smoothing over the moving average procedures now in use by the Air Force. In exponential smoothing, the predicted average is found by weighting the average computed at the end of the last time period with the observed demand during the current period. One may vary the weighting constant on the basis of how much weight is wanted on the last average. The application of the smoothing and averaging is shown with three sets of data. The conclusions of the study are presented.

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Astrachan, Max and Craig C. Sherbrooke, An Empirical Test of Exponential Smoothing. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1964. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_memoranda/RM3938.html.
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