Some statistical properties are established for maximum likelihood estimates of linear model coefficients whose disturbances are generated by a stationary linear first-order autoregressive process with unknown autoregression coefficient. This study describes the model, examines the likelihood function, and gives a detailed proof that the estimates of coefficients of independent variables and the estimate of the autoregression coefficient have a limiting joint multivariate-normal distribution, with the estimate of autoregression distributed independently of the estimates of coefficients of independent variables. This asymptotic covariance matrix of the latter estimates is the same as that of the best linear unbiased estimates for a model in which the autoregression coefficient is known. Up to now, consistency is the only property that has been shown for maximum likelihood estimates. Results of this study should be especially helpful in large-sample applications. 30 pp.
This report is part of the RAND Corporation Research memorandum series. The Research Memorandum was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 1973 that represented working papers meant to report current results of RAND research to appropriate audiences.
Our mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective, and nonpartisan, we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence. For more information, visit www.rand.org/about/research-integrity.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.