The sensitivity of mortality estimates to variations in aggregate population representations

by B. F. Goeller


Purchase Print Copy

 FormatList Price Price
Add to Cart Paperback91 pages $30.00 $24.00 20% Web Discount

An analysis of the changes in mortality estimates that occur with changes in the population representations used for damage assessment. Representations for the U.S. population are created by laying a square mesh grid of a specified dimension over a map of the United States and adding up the population contained within each cell. The populations represented within grid sizes of 5, 10, 20, and 50 km are considered. Two hypothetical attacks are employed: a low-collocation attack and an indiscriminate or unrestrained targeting attack. For both attacks, mortality estimates tend to decrease as the grid size of the population representation increases.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Research memorandum series. The Research Memorandum was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 1973 that represented working papers meant to report current results of RAND research to appropriate audiences.

Our mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective, and nonpartisan, we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence. For more information, visit

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.