JUDGE : a value-judgment-based tactical command system

by Louis W. Miller, Ward Dennis Edwards, Richard J. Kaplan

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Description of the Judged Utility Decision Generator (JUDGE), an advanced man-machine technique for use in allocating missions in response to requests for close air support. JUDGE is predicated on two notions: that value judgments (estimation of military worth associated with requests) can be made explicitly in real time by appropriately trained personnel, and that the system ought to maximize the aggregate expected utility over the dispatching decisions that it makes. Input to the system is a forecast, in probabilistic terms, of demands over a day; constraints derived from the number of aircraft to be used; and the distribution of turnaround times. The day is divided into shorter periods, and sorties are allocated as available for use in each period. As each request is received, JUDGE makes a dispatching decision based on the judged utility of the request, kill probability data, the number of sorties remaining in the period, and the times. The technique used in obtaining value judgments is described and the results of a field study using JUDGE are discussed. The study demonstrated the superiority of the JUDGE technique over the simulated current method as measured by an expected utility criterion and various indicators of consistency. It was also shown that the performance of JUDGE is not severely degraded by errors in forecasting. 65 pp. Ref.

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