Reliability Assessment in the Presence of Reliability Growth

by A. Gross, Milton Kamins

Purchase

Purchase Print Copy

 FormatList Price Price
Add to Cart Paperback66 pages $25.00 $20.00 20% Web Discount

A methodology for estimating the current and future reliability of complex weapon systems that show reliability growth during their development and early operational phases. The study proposes four reliability growth models or patterns that can be fitted to actual data experience to determine the quantitative characteristics of the growth within relatively well-defined tolerances. This is achieved by defining appropriate parametric models and subsequently using maximum likelihood procedures to obtain estimates of the parameters. Comparison of the models shows that under the conditions set forth in this study, three are generally superior in their predictive and assessment characteristics to representative nonparametric methods and to an applicable Bayesian procedure.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Research memorandum series. The Research Memorandum was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1948 to 1973 that represented working papers meant to report current results of RAND research to appropriate audiences.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.