A Model for Estimating Military Personnel Rotation Base Requirements

by E. P. Durbin, O. Wright


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Description of the RAND Rotation Base Model for estimating Air Force manpower needs caused by rotation. The Fulkerson Out-of-Kilter Algorithm (P-1825) is used to solve the personnel flow problem that results from formulating rotation as a network. There are about 40 significant airman career areas and 10 overseas tour areas (groups of bases with similar characteristics and tour length); the model is set up to handle 50 classes and 20 areas. The nodes of the network each represent an assignment class (such as "Staff sergeant, jet engine mechanic, skill level 5") at a particular tour area; the arcs connect nodes between which reassignment is permitted. To the model now used by the Air Force Military Personnel Center, the RAND model adds the factors of personnel substitutability, cross-training, actual personnel loss rate, accession rate, and initial training time.

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