Chinese Industrial Growth : Recent Developments and Potential Growth Rate.

An examination of developments that occurred during the industrial crisis that followed China's Great Leap Forward of 1958-1960, the recovery that followed, and China's prospects for industrial growth over the next decade. This work develops an estimate of the maximum level of industrial output from the scanty and often conflicting evidence for 1965, projects an estimate for the period 1965-1980, and from this deduces a feasible volume of resources that could be considered available for additions to the Communist Chinese stocks of military hardware. China's future total output of machinery and equipment is measured in terms of two alternative assumptions, and hypothetical increases in the output of military hardware are derived and converted into dollar terms. If these assessments are approximately correct, then maximum feasible additions to military stocks over the years 1966-1980 might be somewhere between $10 and $14 billion, with allowance for the little known effects of the Cultural Revolution on the structure of industry. (See also RM-5625, RM-5662, RM-5841.) 91 pp.