Predicting Insurgent and Governmental Decisions

The Power Bloc Model

by William M. Jones


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Model for assessing decisionmaking situations of governmental and quasi-governmental processes. The power bloc model consists of an orderly framework designed to serve as a guide in the collecting, arranging, and weighing of data, the description of existing conflict situations, and the assessment of current and future conditions. The unit of analysis is the "community"; communities handled by the model are (1) the political control element, (2) the military structure, (3) the foreign affairs community, (4) the intelligence community, (5) the technical and industrial managerial group, and (6) the domestic administrative bureaucracy. These communities, which in their attempts to influence governmental decisions become political power blocs, have counterparts in the governing bodies of well-developed insurgent movements. In insurgent movements, the "proto-communities," which in sum represent a sort of proto-government, evince a strong tendency to develop toward their stereotype within a conventional government. Two case studies illustrate the model: the NVA and VC main forces and the Arab commando units.

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