Mar 21, 2018
This study quantifies the willingness of car and light van travellers to pay to use a proposed new tolled tunnel to travel across the harbour in central Copenhagen. The crucial issue in predicting whether drivers will choose to pay the toll is to understand the 'value of time' (VTT) of each driver; that is, the value that each is willing to pay to save a minute of his or her time (and that of the passengers, if any) and whether they have a bias against tolls. To fulfil the research purpose, a stated choice (SC) experiment was undertaken with 3,688 travellers in cars and vans travelling in the relevant corridor. Discrete choice models (DCM) were then developed to quantify travellers' VTTs. We found that DCMs with multiplicative error structures gave a better fit to the data and more reasonable estimates for VTT and travellers with higher incomes and those who made longer journeys placed higher value on travel time savings. We observe significant random heterogeneity in the value of free flow and congested travel times for commute and other travel, in addition to systematic variation by income, trip length and other measured socio-economic covariates. In contrast to other work, we find little evidence of reference dependence in the survey responses or that the survey recruitment methodology impacted the resulting VTTs. We find that respondents reacted more negatively to tolls than other driving costs, but not significantly so.
Design of the survey and stated choice experiments
Characteristics of the sample data
The stated choice models
Summary and recommendations
MNL model development results