This report provides updated scenarios for the U.S. Coast Guard's (USCG's) strategic foresight effort, Project Evergreen, and gives an overview of the process for revising them. The scenarios are used in games and workshops that help USCG participants explore the challenges that the service could face in the future.

Back to the Future

A Refresh of Future Scenarios for Project Evergreen Strategic Foresight Activities

Michelle D. Ziegler, Abbie Tingstad, Katherine Anania, Aaron C. Davenport, Rebecca Tisherman, Scott Savitz, Michael E. Linick, Susan A. Resetar, Melissa Bauman

ResearchPublished Aug 13, 2024

Strategic foresight involves examining trends and drivers of change to create potential future scenarios, then developing strategies to proactively respond to or prepare for those scenarios. It helps organizations shift from reactive to proactive decisionmaking and planning, enabling them to anticipate and prepare for future uncertainties.

The strategic foresight approach enables organizations to become more resilient in the face of change and prepares them for whatever the future might hold, even in times of significant uncertainty. By taking a proactive and flexible approach, an organization can better navigate future challenges, allowing it to adapt and succeed in rapidly changing environments.

This report provides updated scenarios for the U.S. Coast Guard's (USCG's) strategic foresight effort, Project Evergreen, and gives an overview of the process for revising them. The scenarios are used in games and workshops that help USCG participants explore the challenges that the service could face in the future.

Key Findings

  • The scenarios that Project Evergreen participants use for thinking through missions were developed in 2019, prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. They have already been used multiple times in Evergreen workshops and games. Because of this, they no longer provided the mental challenge and thinking that make strategic foresight exercises useful.
  • The six-step process that the RAND research team used to update the scenarios is the same as the process used to create the original set in 2019. The update incorporates emerging USCG focal areas, such as Antarctica, activities in the seabed, and space.
  • The four new scenarios more accurately reflect the world in 2023 and will be used in future workshops and the Paratus Futurum strategic game that are the primary activities of Evergreen VI.

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RAND Style Manual
Ziegler, Michelle D., Abbie Tingstad, Katherine Anania, Aaron C. Davenport, Rebecca Tisherman, Scott Savitz, Michael E. Linick, Susan A. Resetar, and Melissa Bauman, Back to the Future: A Refresh of Future Scenarios for Project Evergreen Strategic Foresight Activities, Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center operated by the RAND Corporation, RR-A2992-1, 2024. As of September 19, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2992-1.html
Chicago Manual of Style
Ziegler, Michelle D., Abbie Tingstad, Katherine Anania, Aaron C. Davenport, Rebecca Tisherman, Scott Savitz, Michael E. Linick, Susan A. Resetar, and Melissa Bauman, Back to the Future: A Refresh of Future Scenarios for Project Evergreen Strategic Foresight Activities. Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center operated by the RAND Corporation, 2024. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2992-1.html.
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This research was sponsored by the Office of Emerging Policy, Office of the Deputy Commandant for Operations, U.S. Coast Guard, and conducted in the Infrastructure, Immigration, and Security Operations Program of the RAND Homeland Security Research Division (HSRD).

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