A Green Costa Rican COVID-19 Recovery
Feb 24, 2022
Costa Rica's National Decarbonization Plan sets the ambitious goal for the country to become carbon-neutral by 2050. The authors of this report applied a novel methodology for planning under deep uncertainty to evaluate whether the benefits of the plan exceed its costs. They find that under the vast majority of plausible assumptions about the future, the plan would achieve or nearly achieve its goals and do so at a net economic benefit.
Informing the Implementation of Costa Rica's National Decarbonization Plan Under Uncertainty
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Costa Rica's National Decarbonization Plan (NDP) sets the ambitious goal for the country to become carbon-neutral by 2050 and lays out a wide range of policy and institutional reforms to achieve this goal. The authors of this report developed an integrated model that estimates the benefits and costs of implementing the NDP in all major sectors, informed by consultations with numerous government agencies, industries, and nongovernmental organizations, and used it to evaluate whether the NDP makes economic sense for Costa Rica — that is, whether the benefits of the NDP exceed its costs.
The authors' analysis suggests that under the vast majority of plausible assumptions about the future, the NDP would achieve or nearly achieve its greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals and do so at a net economic benefit. Conversely, without a concerted focus and investment in decarbonization, Costa Rica's greenhouse gas emissions will increase substantially.
The findings from this study can play an important role in ensuring that the implementation of the NDP is robust — meaning that it will achieve its goals in the uncertain future. This analysis confirms which lines of action are most critical to the success of the NDP — transport and land use — and identifies some key conditions necessary to achieve close to zero net emissions at a large net economic benefit. This study also offers ideas and models that are valuable for other countries interested in decarbonization, and that can inspire development partners globally.
Costa Rica's Ambitious Plan to Decarbonize by 2050
Approach for Analyzing the Benefits and Costs of Costa Rica's Decarbonization Plan Under Uncertainty
The Benefits and Costs of Costa Rica's Decarbonization Plan Under Standard Assumptions
How Uncertain Is the Success of Costa Rica's Decarbonization Plan?
Advancing Decarbonization in Costa Rica
The research described in this report was prepared for the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and conducted by the Community Health and Environmental Policy Program within RAND Social and Economic Well-Being.
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