Italy's All-Volunteer Army: An Analytical Framework for Understanding the Key Policy Issues and Choices During the Transition

by Michele Zanini

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This dissertation builds an analytical framework for understanding the key policy issues and tradeoffs for the Italian Army during its transition toward an All-Volunteer Force. The analysis specifically focuses on the management of the enlisted and noncommissioned officer force in order to (1) assist the army in identifying transition paths most likely to lead to a balanced force, taking costs into account, where the "balanced force" objective is related to how personnel are distributed by grade and years of service (YOS); and (2) provide guidance on force management processes such as recruitment, and identify areas for improvement. The author uses a simulation model of army personnel dynamics to identify alternative strategies designed to improve outcomes. Performance is tracked for multiple measures of effectiveness and costs; strategies were then ranked on the basis of their aggregate cost and effectiveness. The performance of a given alternative is ultimately judged on its robustness across a different set of assumptions of how much policymakers would value an outcome measure (or set of measures) over the rest.

Table of Contents

  • Preface

  • Figures

  • Tables

  • Summary

  • Acknowledgments

  • Introduction

  • Part One

    Background and Relevant Policy Issues

  • Chapter one

    The Policy Context and Problem

  • Chapter Two

    Enlistment and Recruitment

  • Chapter Three

    Career Force Management

  • Chapter Four

    The Demand for Military Manpower: Force Mix Issues

  • Part Two

    Model-Based Policy Analysis

  • Chapter Five

    A Methodology for the Model-Based Analysis

  • Chapter Six

    The Analytical Model and Relevant Modeling Issues

  • Chapter Seven

    Priming the Model and Results from the Base Case

  • Chapter Eight

    Identifying and Comparing Alternative Strategies

  • Chapter Nine

    Conclusions and Policy Implications

  • Appendix A

    Enlistment Supply Models

  • Appendix B

    The 1998 Italian Household Income Survey

  • Appendix C

    Diagrams of the Italian Army's Grade and Promotion Systems

  • Appendix D

    Model Description and Assumptions

  • Appendix E

    Description of Model Mechanics

  • Appendix F

    Catchdata Excel Macro

  • Appendix G

    Policy Lever Values for the Four Alternative Strategies

  • Appendix H

    Summary Data for the Five Strategies

  • Appendix I

    Results Sheet Scores

  • Appendix J

    Scorecard Results from Target Value Sensitivity Analysis

  • Appendix K

    Description of Alternative Steady-State Strategy

  • Bibliography

Research conducted by

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