Cover: Robust Decisions and Deep Uncertainty

Robust Decisions and Deep Uncertainty

An Application of Real Options to Public and Private Investment in Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies

Published Feb 27, 2007

by Sergej Mahnovski

Download eBook for Free

FormatFile SizeNotes
PDF file 0.5 MB

Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience.

This dissertation assesses the prospects for private-sector investment in hydrogen and fuel cell technologies using an innovative application of real options analysis. Specifically, the dissertation considers the decision faced by natural gas utilities over whether, how, and to what extent they should invest in projects that could be of value if a hydrogen energy market develops in the future. This is a problem of investment under uncertainty when there is little prior information available and where the investment itself could affect the future development of this market. The ultimate goal of the dissertation is to identify investment strategies that are robust against alternative futures and assess the trade-offs of various policy instruments.

Research conducted by

This document was submitted as a dissertation in September 2006 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of Steven Popper (Chair), Mark Bernstein, and James Dewar.

This publication is part of the RAND dissertation series. Pardee RAND dissertations are produced by graduate fellows of the Pardee RAND Graduate School, the world's leading producer of Ph.D.'s in policy analysis. The dissertations are supervised, reviewed, and approved by a Pardee RAND faculty committee overseeing each dissertation.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.

RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.