Old-Age Disability in China

Implications for Long-Term Care Policies in the Coming Decades

by Jianhui Hu

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Old-age disability and long-term care (LTC) have not yet been well studied in China. Using logistic regressions and a prevalence ratio projection model, and considering international practices, this dissertation addresses three research questions:

  1. What are the key risk factors for old-age disability in China?
  2. What are the projected numbers of older adults with disabilities in China in future decades through 2050?
  3. How can China develop a feasible and sustainable LTC delivery and financing system to address projected growth in LTC needs of this population over the next four decades?

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Understanding Old-Age Disability and Long-Term Care (LTC) in China

  • Chapter Two

    Risk Factors for Old-Age Disability among Chinese

  • Chapter Three

    Projections for the Disabled Elderly Population in China: 2015 - 2050

  • Chapter Four

    Developing a Feasible and Sustainable Long-Term Care System in China: Policy Implications

  • Appendix A

    Findings from the Literature on Disability Trends in the U.S. and in China

  • Appendix B

    Total Numbers of Older Adults with Any ADL/IADL and 3+ ADLs Limitations in China: 2008 - 2050

  • Appendix C

    Numbers of Older Adults with Any ADL/IADL Limitation in China by Age, Gender, and Residence: 2008 - 2050 (Status Quo)

  • Appendix D

    Numbers of Older Adults with 3+ ADLs Limitation in China by Age, Gender, and Residence: 2008 - 2050 (Status Quo)

Research conducted by

This document was submitted as a dissertation in March 2012 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of Megan Beckett (Chair), Lisa Shugarman, and Paul Heaton.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Dissertation series. Pardee RAND dissertations are produced by graduate fellows of the Pardee RAND Graduate School, the world's leading producer of Ph.D.'s in policy analysis. The dissertations are supervised, reviewed, and approved by a Pardee RAND faculty committee overseeing each dissertation.

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