Comparison of the Long-Distance Model and PLANET Long-Distance

Phase 2, Demand Model

by James Fox, Bhanu Patruni, Andrew Daly

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High Speed Two Limited (HS2 Ltd) was established in January 2009 to investigate the feasibility and credibility of building new high-speed rail (HSR) lines between London and Scotland. During 2009, HS2 developed a modelling framework for the assessment of different HSR options, and, given the time available for model development the existing PLANET suite was selected. The core of this suite is PLANET Long-Distance (PLD), a multi-modal model of all day travel across Great Britain that focuses on long-distance travel demand, considering rail, car and air travel for trips selected to cover the market for the current HSR proposals.

The Long-Distance Demand Model (LDM) was developed on behalf of the Department for Transport (DfT). It is a multi-modal all-day model of long-distance travel (trips over 50 miles) demand that covers all of Great Britain. The LDM is designed to be able to assess the impact of policies on all four existing modes used for long-distance travel (rail, car, air and coach) and is able to predict demand for HSR drawing on information from stated preference surveys collected between November 2009 and January 2010.

The objective of this study was to develop simplified spreadsheet-based versions of the PLD and LDM models, and to undertake analysis of the levels and composition of demand for HS2 services predicted by the two simplified models. The analysis helps to inform HS2's thinking about how the models in the PLANET suite could be improved, potentially drawing on the databases assembled for the LDM study.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    Incremental application of LDM

  • Chapter Three

    Incremental application of PLD

  • Chapter Four

    Comparison of model predictions

  • Chapter Five

    Additional PLD analysis

  • Chapter Six

    Detailed P/A pair analysis

  • Chapter Seven

    Conclusions and recommendations

  • Appendix A

    Specification of incremental model application

  • Appendix B

    Station-access modelling in LDM

  • Appendix C

    The diversity benefit in XLDMC

  • Appendix D

    Detailed P/A pair results

Research conducted by

The research described in this report was prepared for High Speed Two Limited and conducted by RAND Europe.

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