Policy and Methodology to Incorporate Wartime Plans into Total U.S. Air Force Manpower Requirements

by Manuel J. Carrillo, H. G. Massey, Joseph G. Bolten


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Every few years, the U.S. Air Force reviews its authorized manpower to ensure that it has enough people with the right skills and experience to meet national security demands. In the past, this was assumed to include the ability to prosecute two concurrent MTWs, but that assumption is being reexamined. RAND was asked to develop a methodology for examining less-extensive scenarios and to comment on the Total Force Assessment Phase I (TFA-I), which drew to a close in 2001. This report presents the resulting methodology, demonstrates its use by applying it to suitable data (including that from TFA-I), and draws lessons from RAND’s assessment of the TFA-I experience. Among the conclusions are that TFA’s methodology and process could fall prey to pitfalls the most significant of which is the potential for double-counting. It would also be helpful to develop models outside the TFA process, so that a short timeline does not compromise the process. Finally, controls should be improved, including quality control, accountability, and auditing trails.

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The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air Force and conducted by RAND Project AIR FORCE.

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