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Commentary

Al Qaeda Is Ready to Attack You Again

Sep 5, 2019

As al Qaeda continues to evolve, one of the most pressing questions is to what extent the group is still focused on attacking the West. Does the absence of spectacular attacks attributed to al Qaeda since 9/11 represent a lack of capability or merely a shift in priorities?
Commentary

Is Ayman al-Zawahiri Really the Future of Al-Qaida?

Sep 11, 2020

Nineteen years after 9/11, al Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri has yet to achieve the household notoriety evoked by his immediate predecessor, Osama bin Laden. But even though Zawahiri has conjured less of a personality cult, al Qaida's current leader is just as dangerous to the United States as its old one.

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Commentary

The Islamic State in Afghanistan Is Down, but Not Out

The Afghan Taliban is on the verge of entering into a power-sharing agreement with the Afghan government in a peace deal facilitated by the United States. Washington seems to be holding out hope that the deal will stabilize the country. But the Islamic State Khorasan Province remains a concern. The Islamic State in Afghanistan may be down, but it's not out.

Sep 14, 2020
Commentary

Is al Qaida Still a Threat?

Nineteen years after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, does al Qaida still pose a significant threat to U.S. national security? Among researchers, military and intelligence officials, and policymakers who study the group, there is little consensus. An accurate assessment of al Qaida's organizational health must take into account the group's recent and dramatic resurrection.

Sep 9, 2020
Commentary

Baghdadi's Death Will Make Global Affiliates More Independent

The recent death of Islamic State leader and self-proclaimed caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is a major blow to the Islamic State. Baghdadi held a kind of elusive charisma for the organization. He will be replaced, but this does not mean that the Islamic State will simply go back to business as usual.

Oct 28, 2019
Blog

Hurricane Dorian, Al Qaeda, Veterans' Health: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap looks at Hurricane Dorian recovery, al Qaeda 18 years after 9/11, veterans' mental health care, and more.

Sep 13, 2019
Report

What Will Drive the Next Generation of Salafi-Jihadis?

Continued economic stagnation and a high youth unemployment rate, exacerbated by the Muslim youth bulge, could lead to failed expectations and spur radicalization among disenchanted Gen Z Muslims. And this cohort's familiarity with the internet could foreshadow an adaptive, tech-savvy terrorist threat.

Aug 22, 2019
Commentary

The Death of Hamza bin Laden Will Hurt al Qaeda

Hamza bin Laden, the son of al Qaeda's founder and the architect of the 9/11 attacks, is reportedly dead. If true, this is more than just a symbolic loss for the terrorist organization.

Aug 2, 2019
Commentary

How Terrorist Groups Learn: Implications for al Qaeda

With the Islamic State losing the last of its territory, the global jihadist movement is now entering a new phase. The question on the minds of many is whether al Qaeda will be able to capitalize upon the moment and reclaim the dominant position as the most capable Sunni jihadist terrorist organization.

Mar 14, 2019
Report

Trends in the Draw of Americans to Foreign Terrorist Organizations from 9/11 to Today

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has been more successful than its predecessor organization, al Qaeda, in drawing Americans to its cause. Americans drawn to ISIL are more likely to be younger, less educated, Caucasian/white or African American/black, and to have been born in the United States.

Dec 18, 2018
News Release

Islamic State Proves Greater Draw for U.S.-Born Recruits Than al Qaeda

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has been more successful than its predecessor organization, al Qaeda, in drawing Americans to its cause. Whereas al-Qaeda was more reliant on preexisting connections to the region or Islam, an ISIL candidate recruit is more likely to be younger, less educated, and a U.S.-born citizen.

Dec 18, 2018
Commentary

The Future of the Global Jihadist Movement After the Collapse of the Caliphate

The future of the global jihadist movement is likely to resemble its past, with groups of militants dispersing to new battlefields, from North Africa to Southeast Asia. The Islamic State could become even more dangerous and challenging for counterterrorism forces, as its splinter groups threaten renewed and heightened violence throughout the globe.

Dec 11, 2018
Commentary

The Power of Affiliates: Which ISIS Franchise Could Become the Most Capable?

With ISIS's caliphate in ruins, one of its affiliates could grow to become even deadlier and more capable than the core organization was during its peak. And with franchise groups and affiliates across the globe, there's no shortage of contenders to supplant ISIS as the world's most dangerous terrorist group.

Oct 9, 2018
Report

Blaming Sunni-Shi'a Split for Middle East Unrest Is Too Simplistic

Policy decisions are being made based on the assumption that the Middle East is riven by a purely dualistic sectarian war between Sunni and Shi'a Muslims. While sectarianism is relevant, geopolitical competition, local disputes, and political rivalries are the core drivers of conflict in countries like Iraq and Syria.

Aug 30, 2018
Commentary

Do Terrorist Groups Really Die?

The persistence of al Qaeda and ISIS underscores terrorist groups' adaptability in the 21st century. Both organizations maintain global, regional, and local influence in the face of immense pressure. As terrorist groups fall, the West should watch them closely to prevent a resurgence.

Apr 9, 2018
Commentary

Expanding the ISIS Brand

Since its founding, the Islamic State has consistently expanded and contracted in order to achieve its objectives. To discern how ISIS might continue to expand, it makes sense to trace Al Qaeda's trajectory, which followed a similar pattern in the 2000s.

Feb 19, 2018
Commentary

The Moderate Face of Al Qaeda

Al Qaeda in Syria cut ties with its parent organization to portray itself as a legitimate, capable, and independent force in the Syrian civil war. The group appears dedicated to helping Syrians prevail, and now that ISIS has lost its capital in Raqqa, al Qaeda may be the only group viewed as militarily capable of challenging the Assad regime.

Oct 24, 2017
Commentary

Sahel Governments Need More Security Assistance

Developments in the Sahel are cause for alarm. Despite the presence of an active French counterterrorism force and a UN peacekeeping mission, al Qaeda groups are thriving. The region would benefit from approaches that combine police and military operations with economic development and improved governance.

Sep 14, 2017
Testimony

The Terrorist Diaspora: After the Fall of the Caliphate: Addendum

Document submitted August 11, 2017, as an addendum to testimony before the House Committee on Homeland Security, Task Force on Denying Terrorists Entry into the United States on July 13, 2017.

Aug 14, 2017
Commentary

Will Al Qaeda Make a Comeback?

Al Qaeda's revival will likely hinge on its ability to take advantage of opportunities such as the withdrawal of counterterrorism forces from key battlefields, more revolt in the Middle East, U.S. or European policies that feed the perception of Muslim oppression, or the rise of a charismatic jihadist leader.

Aug 7, 2017

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