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Al Qaida

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Commentary
The Question of Succession in Al-Qaida
Two months after the death of al Qaida leader Aymin al-Zawahiri, experts continue to debate potential contenders for his replacement while waiting for al-Qaeda to make an announcement. A dark horse contender with long ties to Osama bin Laden could upend predictions and threaten to revive one of history's most lethal terrorist groups.
Sep 29, 2022
Commentary
After the al-Zawahiri Strike, the U.S. May Lack Capabilities in Afghanistan
The U.S. drone strike that killed al Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan took out one of the last remaining key figures behind the 9/11 terror attacks. But it also highlighted how little the United States got out of its 2020 bargain with the Taliban, and raised questions about the U.S. ability to adequately monitor the developing threat from this quarter going forward.
Aug 3, 2022

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Report
Implications of the Pandemic for Terrorist Interest in Biological Weapons
Some policymakers and analysts have expressed concern that weaknesses in responses to the COVID-19 pandemic will motivate terrorists to seek biological weapons. While the prospect of the Islamic State and al-Qaeda pursuing biological weapons is not zero, it is unlikely, given the difficulties involved and the availability of simpler alternatives.
May 31, 2022
Journal Article
Scenarios of Transnational Islamist Terrorism. Trends and Developments: A Fact-Based Threat Assessment
Some scholars have speculated that the current religious wave of terrorism, epitomized by the global jihadist movement, might finally be starting to ebb. But the movement could very well roar back to life.
Feb 25, 2022
Journal Article
The Atomization of Political Violence
The conclusion that terrorism is likely to persist at low levels does not preclude large-scale attacks. The present tumultuous state of the world and growing domestic extremism could produce dramatic changes in the future trajectory of political violence.
Feb 25, 2022
Report
Insights from the Bin Laden Archive: Inventory of research and knowledge and initial assessment and characterisation of the Bin Laden Archive
The authors present an inventory of current knowledge on Al Qa'ida and of completed and ongoing research on the Bin Laden Archive. They also describe their initial assessment and characterisation of the Bin Laden Archive.
May 5, 2021
Journal Article
Commentary: Securing the Least Bad Outcome: The Options Facing Biden on Afghanistan
President Biden must decide whether to withdraw the remaining 2,500 U.S. troops from Afghanistan to meet a May 1 deadline. The consequences of the decision will decide the fate of Afghanistan and signal the U.S.' broader strategic intentions.
Mar 12, 2021
Commentary
The Islamic State in Afghanistan Is Down, but Not Out
The Afghan Taliban is on the verge of entering into a power-sharing agreement with the Afghan government in a peace deal facilitated by the United States. Washington seems to be holding out hope that the deal will stabilize the country. But the Islamic State Khorasan Province remains a concern. The Islamic State in Afghanistan may be down, but it's not out.
Sep 14, 2020
Commentary
Is Ayman al-Zawahiri Really the Future of Al-Qaida?
Nineteen years after 9/11, al Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri has yet to achieve the household notoriety evoked by his immediate predecessor, Osama bin Laden. But even though Zawahiri has conjured less of a personality cult, al Qaida's current leader is just as dangerous to the United States as its old one.
Sep 11, 2020
Commentary
Is al Qaida Still a Threat?
Nineteen years after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, does al Qaida still pose a significant threat to U.S. national security? Among researchers, military and intelligence officials, and policymakers who study the group, there is little consensus. An accurate assessment of al Qaida's organizational health must take into account the group's recent and dramatic resurrection.
Sep 9, 2020
Commentary
Baghdadi's Death Will Make Global Affiliates More Independent
The recent death of Islamic State leader and self-proclaimed caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is a major blow to the Islamic State. Baghdadi held a kind of elusive charisma for the organization. He will be replaced, but this does not mean that the Islamic State will simply go back to business as usual.
Oct 28, 2019
Blog
Hurricane Dorian, Al Qaeda, Veterans' Health: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap looks at Hurricane Dorian recovery, al Qaeda 18 years after 9/11, veterans' mental health care, and more.
Sep 13, 2019
Commentary
Al Qaeda Is Ready to Attack You Again
As al Qaeda continues to evolve, one of the most pressing questions is to what extent the group is still focused on attacking the West. Does the absence of spectacular attacks attributed to al Qaeda since 9/11 represent a lack of capability or merely a shift in priorities?
Sep 5, 2019
Commentary
What Will Drive the Next Generation of Salafi-Jihadis?
Continued economic stagnation and a high youth unemployment rate, exacerbated by the Muslim youth bulge, could lead to failed expectations and spur radicalization among disenchanted Gen Z Muslims. And this cohort's familiarity with the internet could foreshadow an adaptive, tech-savvy terrorist threat.
Aug 22, 2019
Commentary
The Death of Hamza bin Laden Will Hurt al Qaeda
Hamza bin Laden, the son of al Qaeda's founder and the architect of the 9/11 attacks, is reportedly dead. If true, this is more than just a symbolic loss for the terrorist organization.
Aug 2, 2019
Commentary
How Terrorist Groups Learn: Implications for al Qaeda
With the Islamic State losing the last of its territory, the global jihadist movement is now entering a new phase. The question on the minds of many is whether al Qaeda will be able to capitalize upon the moment and reclaim the dominant position as the most capable Sunni jihadist terrorist organization.
Mar 14, 2019
News Release
Islamic State Proves Greater Draw for U.S.-Born Recruits Than al Qaeda
The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has been more successful than its predecessor organization, al Qaeda, in drawing Americans to its cause. Whereas al-Qaeda was more reliant on preexisting connections to the region or Islam, an ISIL candidate recruit is more likely to be younger, less educated, and a U.S.-born citizen.
Dec 18, 2018
Report
Trends in the Draw of Americans to Foreign Terrorist Organizations from 9/11 to Today
The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has been more successful than its predecessor organization, al Qaeda, in drawing Americans to its cause. Americans drawn to ISIL are more likely to be younger, less educated, Caucasian/white or African American/black, and to have been born in the United States.
Dec 18, 2018
Commentary
The Future of the Global Jihadist Movement After the Collapse of the Caliphate
The future of the global jihadist movement is likely to resemble its past, with groups of militants dispersing to new battlefields, from North Africa to Southeast Asia. The Islamic State could become even more dangerous and challenging for counterterrorism forces, as its splinter groups threaten renewed and heightened violence throughout the globe.
Dec 11, 2018
Commentary
The Power of Affiliates: Which ISIS Franchise Could Become the Most Capable?
With ISIS's caliphate in ruins, one of its affiliates could grow to become even deadlier and more capable than the core organization was during its peak. And with franchise groups and affiliates across the globe, there's no shortage of contenders to supplant ISIS as the world's most dangerous terrorist group.
Oct 9, 2018

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Research conducted by

RAND National Security Research Division