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Commentary

Five Years After the Death of Osama bin Laden, Is the World Safer?

May 2, 2016

What effect did killing bin Laden have on al Qaeda's ability to pursue its jihadist goals? Does high-value targeting contribute to counterterrorist strategy more broadly? Does killing terrorist leaders work?
Commentary

Al Qaeda's Ruthless Pragmatism Makes It More Dangerous Than the Islamic State

Oct 27, 2016

Al Qaeda presents a graver long-term threat to the West than the Islamic State. It has proved more effective in exploiting U.S. policy in the Middle East to legitimize itself as an armed force and, increasingly, as a viable political player.

Explore Al Qaida

Commentary

Sahel Governments Need More Security Assistance

Developments in the Sahel are cause for alarm. Despite the presence of an active French counterterrorism force and a UN peacekeeping mission, al Qaeda groups are thriving. The region would benefit from approaches that combine police and military operations with economic development and improved governance.

Sep 14, 2017
Testimony

Testimony

The Terrorist Diaspora: After the Fall of the Caliphate: Addendum

Document submitted August 11, 2017, as an addendum to testimony before the House Committee on Homeland Security, Task Force on Denying Terrorists Entry into the United States on July 13, 2017.

Aug 14, 2017
Commentary

Will Al Qaeda Make a Comeback?

Al Qaeda's revival will likely hinge on its ability to take advantage of opportunities such as the withdrawal of counterterrorism forces from key battlefields, more revolt in the Middle East, U.S. or European policies that feed the perception of Muslim oppression, or the rise of a charismatic jihadist leader.

Aug 7, 2017
Testimony

Testimony

Middle East Turmoil and the Continuing Terrorist Threat — Still No Easy Solutions: Addendum

Document submitted on July7, 2017, as an addendum to testimony before the House Committee on Armed Services on February 14, 2017.

Jul 27, 2017
Multimedia

The Terrorist Diaspora

An overview of the testimony presented by Colin Clarke before the House Homeland Security Committee Task Force on Denying Terrorists Entry into the United States on July 13, 2017.

Jul 13, 2017
Testimony

How Al-Qaida Could Resurge

Several factors may impact al-Qaida's rise or decline over the next several years. Most of these are outside of al-Qaida's control, but much would depend on how al-Qaida or similar groups responded to them.

Jul 13, 2017
Testimony

The Terrorist Diaspora: After the Fall of the Caliphate

As operations against ISIS in Mosul conclude, militants are likely already fleeing—and preparing to wage jihad elsewhere. How can the United States identify and mitigate the threat posed by these foreign fighters?

Jul 13, 2017
Multimedia

The Evolving Terrorist Threat

As ISIS loses territory in Iraq and Syria, are terrorist attacks more likely or less? How is the group evolving? What about al-Qa'ida? To answer these questions, RAND convened a group of terrorism experts.

Jul 12, 2017
Commentary

Trump's Options for Afghanistan: Losing or Not Losing

The Trump administration faces the choice of losing quickly by withdrawing from Afghanistan; losing slowly by maintaining America's current, inadequate commitment; or not losing by increasing that commitment enough to maintain a stalemate on the battlefield.

Jun 23, 2017
Commentary

Is ISIS Leader Baghdadi Still Alive?

The Russian military announced that it might have killed the leader of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, in an airstrike in Raqqa. Would his death weaken the group or will ISIS continue to adapt, evolve, and expand like al Qaeda did?

Jun 22, 2017
Commentary

Why Aren't There More Terrorist Attacks Like the One in London?

The number of attacks like the one on London Bridge are low because jihadist ideologies have failed to gain traction in most Muslim countries, and it's difficult to recruit people remotely. Supporting violence and participating in it are two different things.

Jun 7, 2017
Report

Undermining Violent Extremism in Yemen

In the past 50 years, Yemen has faced significant political instability, including multiple civil wars. Why might Yemenis reject political violence despite persistent conflict and unrest? And how can the United States and its partners undermine violent extremism?

May 22, 2017
Testimony

U.S. Policy Toward Afghanistan and the Region

Afghanistan remains a key frontline state in the struggle against terrorist groups. With that in mind, the United States should make Afghanistan and neighboring Pakistan an enduring part of its counterterrorism efforts.

Apr 27, 2017
Commentary

Attacks on Russia Will Only Increase

As Russia gets more involved with the Syrian civil war, it's likely that Sunni militants will intensify their campaign against Russia. But the key reason why Sunni attacks on Russia proper will increase is the fallout between Sunni jihadists in the Caucasus.

Apr 4, 2017
Commentary

Al Qaeda in Syria Can Change Its Name, but Not Its Stripes

Al Qaeda in Syria, by any name, remains a dangerous and capable terrorist organization with the ability to conduct attacks in the West. Those seeking to grapple with the threat the group poses should focus less on its names and more on its actions.

Mar 23, 2017
Testimony

No Easy Solutions to the Persistent Terrorist Threat

Jihadist terrorism isn't the most dangerous threat to the United States. But it is the most prominent. There are no clear solutions to this problem, and all America's counterterrorism options entail risks.

Feb 14, 2017
Report

Countering ISIL as a Transregional Threat

The U.S. counter-ISIL strategy must recognize the long-term nature of the global violent jihadi threat. U.S. diplomatic and military actions should focus on reducing the appeal of ISIL and disrupting the transregional network that supports it.

Jan 31, 2017
Testimony

Testimony

Fifteen Years After 9/11: A Preliminary Balance Sheet: Addendum

Document submitted on January 11, 2017 as an addendum to testimony presented before the House Armed Services Committee on September 21, 2016.

Jan 12, 2017
Commentary

Al Nusra Is Stronger Than Ever

While the West targets ISIS, Jabhat Fateh al Sham, formerly known as Jabhat al Nusra, is quietly laying the groundwork for al Qaeda's resurgence.

Nov 2, 2016

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