Al Qaida

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Commentary

Oct 1, 2026

9/11's Forgotten Lesson

Twenty-five years later, 9/11's lessons are still contested, except the simplest: the United States mistook quiet for peace. And it is doing so again.
Research

Sep 28, 2026

Counterterror and Great Power Competition in the Sahel

This study develops a game-theoretic model to explain why jihadist expansion has strained traditional Western partnerships and encouraged governments to seek Russian assistance.
Commentary

Sep 29, 2022

The Question of Succession in Al-Qaida

Two months after the death of al Qaida leader Aymin al-Zawahiri, experts continue to debate potential contenders for his replacement while waiting for al-Qaeda to make an announcement. A dark horse contender with long ties to Osama bin Laden could upend predictions and threaten to revive one of history's most lethal terrorist groups.
Commentary

Aug 3, 2022

After the al-Zawahiri Strike, the U.S. May Lack Capabilities in Afghanistan

The U.S. drone strike that killed al Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan took out one of the last remaining key figures behind the 9/11 terror attacks. But it also highlighted how little the United States got out of its 2020 bargain with the Taliban, and raised questions about the U.S. ability to adequately monitor the developing threat from this quarter going forward.
Research

May 31, 2022

Implications of the Pandemic for Terrorist Interest in Biological Weapons: Islamic State and al-Qaeda Pandemic Case Studies

Some analysts have expressed concern that weaknesses in responses to the COVID-19 pandemic will motivate terrorists to seek biological weapons. Although the prospect is unlikely, measures can be taken to address public health and military challenges.
Research

Feb 25, 2022

Scenarios of Transnational Islamist Terrorism. Trends and Developments: A Fact-Based Threat Assessment

Some scholars have speculated that the current religious wave of terrorism, epitomized by the global jihadist movement, might finally be starting to ebb. But the movement could very well roar back to life.
Research

Feb 25, 2022

The Atomization of Political Violence

The conclusion that terrorism is likely to persist at low levels does not preclude large-scale attacks. The present tumultuous state of the world and growing domestic extremism could produce dramatic changes in the future trajectory of political violence.
Research

May 5, 2021

Insights from the Bin Laden Archive: Inventory of research and knowledge and initial assessment and characterisation of the Bin Laden Archive

The authors present an inventory of current knowledge on Al Qa'ida and of completed and ongoing research on the Bin Laden Archive. They also describe their initial assessment and characterisation of the Bin Laden Archive.
Research

Mar 12, 2021

Commentary: Securing the Least Bad Outcome: The Options Facing Biden on Afghanistan

President Biden must decide whether to withdraw the remaining 2,500 U.S. troops from Afghanistan to meet a May 1 deadline. The consequences of the decision will decide the fate of Afghanistan and signal the U.S.' broader strategic intentions.
Commentary

Sep 14, 2020

The Islamic State in Afghanistan Is Down, but Not Out

The Afghan Taliban is on the verge of entering into a power-sharing agreement with the Afghan government in a peace deal facilitated by the United States. Washington seems to be holding out hope that the deal will stabilize the country. But the Islamic State Khorasan Province remains a concern. The Islamic State in Afghanistan may be down, but it's not out.
Commentary

Sep 11, 2020

Is Ayman al-Zawahiri Really the Future of Al-Qaida?

Nineteen years after 9/11, al Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri has yet to achieve the household notoriety evoked by his immediate predecessor, Osama bin Laden. But even though Zawahiri has conjured less of a personality cult, al Qaida's current leader is just as dangerous to the United States as its old one.
Commentary

Sep 9, 2020

Is al Qaida Still a Threat?

Nineteen years after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, does al Qaida still pose a significant threat to U.S. national security? Among researchers, military and intelligence officials, and policymakers who study the group, there is little consensus. An accurate assessment of al Qaida's organizational health must take into account the group's recent and dramatic resurrection.

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Al Qaida

Al Qaida

Related Topics

The Question of Succession in Al-Qaida

After the al-Zawahiri Strike, the U.S. May Lack Capabilities in Afghanistan

Explore RAND’s Work on this Topic

Error

9/11's Forgotten Lesson

Counterterror and Great Power Competition in the Sahel

The Question of Succession in Al-Qaida

After the al-Zawahiri Strike, the U.S. May Lack Capabilities in Afghanistan

Implications of the Pandemic for Terrorist Interest in Biological Weapons: Islamic State and al-Qaeda Pandemic Case Studies

Scenarios of Transnational Islamist Terrorism. Trends and Developments: A Fact-Based Threat Assessment

The Atomization of Political Violence

Insights from the Bin Laden Archive: Inventory of research and knowledge and initial assessment and characterisation of the Bin Laden Archive

Commentary: Securing the Least Bad Outcome: The Options Facing Biden on Afghanistan

The Islamic State in Afghanistan Is Down, but Not Out

Is Ayman al-Zawahiri Really the Future of Al-Qaida?

Is al Qaida Still a Threat?

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Al Qaida

Al Qaida

Related Topics

The Question of Succession in Al-Qaida

After the al-Zawahiri Strike, the U.S. May Lack Capabilities in Afghanistan

Explore RAND’s Work on this Topic

Error

9/11's Forgotten Lesson

Counterterror and Great Power Competition in the Sahel

The Question of Succession in Al-Qaida

After the al-Zawahiri Strike, the U.S. May Lack Capabilities in Afghanistan

Implications of the Pandemic for Terrorist Interest in Biological Weapons: Islamic State and al-Qaeda Pandemic Case Studies

Scenarios of Transnational Islamist Terrorism. Trends and Developments: A Fact-Based Threat Assessment

The Atomization of Political Violence

Insights from the Bin Laden Archive: Inventory of research and knowledge and initial assessment and characterisation of the Bin Laden Archive

Commentary: Securing the Least Bad Outcome: The Options Facing Biden on Afghanistan

The Islamic State in Afghanistan Is Down, but Not Out

Is Ayman al-Zawahiri Really the Future of Al-Qaida?

Is al Qaida Still a Threat?

Oops! An unexpected error has occurred.