Scenarios of Transnational Islamist Terrorism. Trends and Developments

A Fact-Based Threat Assessment

Published in: EICTP Vienna Research Papers on Transnational Terrorism and Counter-terrorism: Trends and Scenarios of Transnational Terrorism. Volume III: Forecast, Anticipation and Prediction of Defining Trends Against the Backdrop of Uncertainty, pages 43–53 (December 2021)

Posted on RAND.org on February 25, 2022

by Colin P. Clarke

Read More

Access further information on this document at www.eictp.eu

This article was published outside of RAND. The full text of the article can be found at the link above.

With the twenty-year anniversary of the al-Qaeda attacks of September 11, 2001 fast approaching, many governments, security services, and intelligence agencies around the world are taking stock of the current threat while attempting to prepare for what could come next. The global terrorism landscape looks radically different than it did two decades ago. Al-Qaeda is larger in terms of overall numbers, but weaker in its ability to plan and execute spectacular attacks in the West. Its progeny, the Islamic State (IS), rose from the Levant in 2014, constructed a proto-state in the heart of the Middle East, and attracted tens of thousands of fighters from over 120 different countries. The self-proclaimed caliphate has been crushed and IS deprived of its physical territory, although its affiliates and franchise groups remain active in various regions of the globe.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation External publication series. Many RAND studies are published in peer-reviewed scholarly journals, as chapters in commercial books, or as documents published by other organizations.

Our mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective, and nonpartisan, we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence. For more information, visit www.rand.org/about/research-integrity.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.