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Estonia

Report

Deterring Russian Aggression in the Baltic States

Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are vulnerable to low-level, hybrid, and full-scale attacks by Russian forces. Which unconventional strategies could they use to deter aggression and buy time for conventional military responses? And how can NATO allies help develop and fund these efforts?

Apr 15, 2019
News Release

News Release

Unconventional Approaches Could Help Deter Russian Intimidation and Aggression Against the Baltic States

Amid concerns that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are vulnerable to Russian intimidation and hybrid warfare, a new RAND Corporation report concludes that unconventional defense plans could help deter and counteract Russian aggression.

Apr 15, 2019
Testimony

Testimony

Russian Social Media Influence: Understanding Russian Propaganda in Eastern Europe: Addendum

Document submitted August 30, 2018, as an addendum to testimony before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on August 1, 2018.

Aug 31, 2018
Testimony

Russia's Social Media Influence in Eastern Europe

Russia is engaged in an active, worldwide propaganda campaign, but it is particularly interested in targeting its western border. What can the United States and allied governments do to limit Russian influence in the region?

Aug 1, 2018
Report

How to Counter Russian Social Media Influence in Eastern Europe

Russia uses social media in nearby states to sow dissent against neighboring governments and NATO. Options for countering the Kremlin's campaign include tracking and blocking propaganda more quickly and offering alternative content to help displace the Russian narrative.

Apr 12, 2018
News Release

News Release

RAND Identifies New Strategies for Countering Russian Social Media Influence in Eastern Europe

Russia is waging a social media campaign in the Baltics, Ukraine and nearby states to sow dissent against neighboring governments, as well as NATO and the European Union.

Apr 12, 2018
Commentary

A 'Glass Half-Full': Next Steps for Enhancing Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank

The United States and key allies have taken steps toward redressing the imbalance in military power between NATO and Russia in Northeastern Europe. But NATO's defense planners must be clear-eyed about what remains to be done.

Feb 12, 2018
Report

Assessing the Imbalance of Military Power in Europe

Since 2008 Russia has been expanding and refining its readiness for conventional warfare. These improvements have reduced the qualitative and technological gaps between Russia and NATO. What do recent trends imply for the balance of capabilities in NATO member states in the Baltic Sea region?

Feb 5, 2018
Commentary

How NATO Could Accidentally Trigger a War with Russia

An increased NATO presence in the Baltics could motivate Russia for an invasion. U.S. and NATO deployments in the region should take seriously Russian beliefs about NATO capabilities in planning future deployments, and by pursuing transparency and negotiation in future deployments in the Baltic region.

Nov 13, 2017
Journal Article

Journal Article

Total Defense: How the Baltic States Are Integrating Citizenry Into Their National Security Strategies

The Baltic states' thinking about national defense increasingly encompasses civil society, starting from the leveraging of civilian infrastructure to the participation of civilians in national defense..

Oct 6, 2017
Report

Emerging Opportunities for Engagement on NATO's Northeastern Flank

Will renewed tension between NATO and Russia prevent key U.S. allies and partners in Europe from being able to contribute to U.S. regional defense objectives? What can the U.S. do to strengthen its European partnerships?

Jun 20, 2017
Commentary

NATO: Prepared for Countering Disinformation Operations in the Baltic States?

NATO alliance countries deploying to the Baltics should prepare to deal with increasing levels of disinformation. An open and robust communication strategy could be crucial in tackling a sophisticated Russian disinformation campaign aimed at disrupting support for these deployments.

Jun 7, 2017
Testimony

Testimony

Deterring Russian Aggression in the Baltic States: What it Takes to Win: Addendum

Document submitted April 17, 2017, as an addendum to testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces on March 1, 2017.

May 2, 2017
Testimony

What It Takes to Deter Russian Aggression in the Baltics

The United States and NATO face several challenges in deterring Russia in the Baltics. Solving these is vital to achieving core U.S. objectives in Europe. The first step is to ensure that NATO can stay in the game and deny Moscow an easy strategic victory.

Mar 1, 2017
Multimedia

Limiting Regret and Deterring Russian Aggression in the Baltic States

Testimonies presented before the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces on March 1, 2017.

Mar 1, 2017
Report

The Potential for Russian Hybrid Warfare in the Baltics

Russia would likely have trouble using nonviolent tactics to destabilize the Baltics. Covert violent action is also unlikely to succeed on its own. Thus, the Baltics' main vulnerability is Russia's local superiority in conventional forces.

Feb 23, 2017
Report

Report

Smarter Power, Stronger Partners, Volume II: Trends in Force Projection Against Potential Adversaries

This book describes scenarios to test whether the anti-access and area-denial threat to U.S. force projection is growing more severe. They describe plausible U.S. and adversary military actions given current operational capabilities and approaches.

Feb 8, 2017
Commentary

'If You Want Peace, Prepare for Resistance'

The government of Lithuania issued a guide on how its citizens can resist a potential Russian invasion and occupation. Resistance is a key element of the “Total Defense” strategy which all three Baltic states have been pursuing to varying degrees, spurred on by Russian aggression in Crimea and elsewhere.

Nov 22, 2016
Journal Article

Journal Article

Paper Wargames and Policy Making: Filling the Baltic Gap or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the D6

RAND has a long backstory in wargaming.

Oct 5, 2016
Multimedia

Rethinking Russia's Threat to NATO

A series of wargames examined the probable outcome of a Russian invasion of the Baltic states. The wargames showed that a near-term Russian invasion could reach the Estonian and Latvian capitals in less than 60 hours.

Sep 30, 2016

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