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Open Source Intelligence

Journal Article

Through the Looking Glass: Chinese Open Source Assessments of North Korea's Ballistic Missile Capabilities

This report examines Chinese assessments of North Korean ballistic missile capabilities between 1998 and 2017. Chinese analyses mirror Western conclusions that North Korea has a functional ICBM that can reach the U.S. with a nuclear weapon.

May 14, 2021
Blog

COVID-19 Demographic Trends, Vaccinating 'High-Contact' People, the Iran Threat Network: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how the pandemic is shaping demographic trends, targeting vaccines to "high-contact" people, the Iran Threat Network, and more.

Apr 16, 2021
Commentary

The Intelligence Community's Deadly Bias Toward Classified Sources

Even when relevant data is publicly available, U.S. intelligence analysts are not including it in their analytic products during their routine course of business. This willful ignorance of publicly available information is hurting U.S. national security.

Apr 12, 2021
Commentary

An Early Policy Victory for DNI Haines: Boost the Priority of Open Sources Information

The quantity, quality, and accessibility of publicly available information has exploded over the past decades. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines has an opportunity to advance intelligence community mission activities on several key issues shaped by the digital information age, including the role of publicly available information.

Mar 4, 2021
Journal Article

Explaining Variation in the Growth and Decline of Detention Facilities Across Xinjiang

This report, the final in our series, explores trends in the growth and decline of nighttime lighting over detention facilities across Xinjiang.

Feb 26, 2021
Journal Article

Have Any of Xinjiang's Detention Facilities Closed?

This report, the second in a three-part series, employs a novel empirical approach to systematically assess the current operating status of known detention facilities in Xinjiang using nighttime lighting.

Feb 26, 2021
Journal Article

Investigating the Growth of Detention Facilities in Xinjiang Using Nighttime Lighting

This first report introduces our methodological approach and uses nighttime lighting data to investigate the rapid, coordinated growth of detention facilities in Xinjiang over the last decade.

Feb 26, 2021
Report

Strategic Surveillance for Food Safety: Designing a surveillance approach and considerations for implementation

The Food Standards Agency engaged RAND Europe to design an approach to strategic surveillance for the UK food system. The study team produced an end-to-end approach, identified implementation steps and considered their impact and feasibility.

May 13, 2019
Journal Article

Adaptation by Intelligent Adversaries to Defensive Measures: Framing Adaptation Options and Demonstrating Assessment of Attacker Preferences Using Proxy Intelligence Data

Addressing adaptation by adversaries and its implications for security planning requires understanding the ways attackers can respond to new defensive measures. This paper demonstrates an analysis of such preferences using open source data.

Oct 2, 2018
Report

Defining Second Generation Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) for the Defense Enterprise

This report describes the evolution of open source intelligence, defines open source information and the intelligence cycle, and parallels with other intelligence disciplines, along with methods used and challenges of using off-the-shelf technology.

May 17, 2018
Commentary

The Insight of Twitter

Exploring how people use social media has provided useful insight into public opinion. This insight may be particularly valuable in countries where freedom of expression may be limited, for whom social media may serve as an important outlet, writes Douglas Yeung.

Oct 31, 2012
Research Brief

Can Social Media Help Analyze Public Opinion? A Case Study of Iranian Public Opinion After the 2009 Election

Describes a methodology for analyzing public opinion and mood in closed societies, focusing on a case study that analyzed Iranian public opinion and mood as expressed over Twitter in the nine months following Iran's 2009 presidential election.

Oct 4, 2012
Report

Tracking Public Sentiment in Iran After the Contested 2009 Election with Twitter

Social media was used in the 2009 protests to organize and communicate under government censorship. An analysis of more than 2.5 million tweets discussing the Iran election holds promise for such policy uses as assessing public opinion and forecasting events such as large-scale protests.

Jan 17, 2012
Content

Alexi Drew

Senior Analyst
Education Ph.D. in politics and international relations, Royal Holloway, University of London
Content

Timothy R. Heath

Senior International/Defense Researcher
Education Ph.D. in political science, George Mason University; M.A. in Asian studies, George Washington University; B.A. in philosophy, College of William and Mary
Content

Bradley Knopp

Senior International / Defense Researcher
Education BA in political science, Furman University; MA in political science, Georgetown University; Cert in national security studies, National War College
Content

Katherine Pfrommer

Quantitative Analyst
Education M.S. in public policy/admin/analysis, Carnegie Mellon University; B.S. in economics, Allegheny College
Content

Cortney Weinbaum

Senior Management Scientist
Education B.S. in physics, University of Michigan

RAND Topic:
Open Source Intelligence

Topic Synonyms:
Open-Source Intelligence;
OSINT