Countering Foreign Interference in U.S. Elections

Marek N. Posard, Hilary Reininger, Todd C. Helmus

ResearchPublished Mar 29, 2021

This report is the fourth in a four-part series aimed at helping policymakers and the public understand—and mitigate—the threat of online foreign interference in national, state, and local elections. During future U.S. political campaigns, Russia might try again to manipulate and divide U.S. voters via social media. Given the past and likely extant threats to U.S. elections, the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services asked for research to help analyze, forecast, and mitigate threats by foreign actors targeting local, state, and national elections.

This report first describes research from focus groups and individual interviews on how people respond to memes sourced in Russia that were designed to breed dissension and to a public service announcement (PSA) warning about such online manipulation, then outlines a strategy to counter foreign interference in U.S. elections. The authors posit that adversaries are trying to exploit fault lines that already exist within U.S. society. These efforts could be effectively countered by collecting open-source intelligence on social media; releasing a simple, well-designed PSA for use during election cycles that warns the public about strategic threats targeting U.S. elections; and coordinating with social media companies to flag the source of foreign political content.

Key Findings

  • Russian information efforts are recycling U.S. partisanship at scale.
  • Most participants in focus groups and interviews mistakenly assumed that Russian content was sourced by Americans.
  • Most of these participants held a positive view of a PSA on foreign election interference that provided a nonpartisan, general warning created by an authoritative source: the Federal Bureau of Investigations and the Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.
  • After interviewers told participants that the content they viewed was from Russia, the PSA appeared to be particularly relevant to them.

Recommendations

  • Cal OES should collect open-source intelligence on social media well before the start of electoral cycles to spot trends of foreign interference.
  • Federal and state officials should release simple, well-designed PSAs for use during election cycles that warn the public about strategic threats targeting U.S. elections.
  • Cal OES coordinate with social media companies to flag the source of foreign political content.

Order a Print Copy

Format
Paperback
Page count
68 pages
List Price
$17.00
Buy link
Add to Cart

Topics

Document Details

  • Availability: Available
  • Year: 2021
  • Print Format: Paperback
  • Paperback Pages: 68
  • Paperback Price: $17.00
  • Paperback ISBN/EAN: 978-1-9774-0672-9
  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.7249/RRA704-4
  • Document Number: RR-A704-4

Citation

RAND Style Manual
Posard, Marek N., Hilary Reininger, and Todd C. Helmus, Countering Foreign Interference in U.S. Elections, RAND Corporation, RR-A704-4, 2021. As of October 12, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA704-4.html
Chicago Manual of Style
Posard, Marek N., Hilary Reininger, and Todd C. Helmus, Countering Foreign Interference in U.S. Elections. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2021. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA704-4.html. Also available in print form.
BibTeX RIS

This research was sponsored by Cal OES and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD).

This publication is part of the RAND research report series. Research reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND research reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.

This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.

RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.