Democracy

  • A soldier engages a target during a convoy live fire exercise at Novo Selo Training Area, Bulgaria, on July 7, 2017

    Report

    What Are the Trends in Armed Conflicts? What Do They Mean for U.S. Defense Policy?

    Until the wars in Syria and Ukraine, armed conflict in the world had been decreasing for decades. Future projections show continued decline, but the U.S. military has an important role in deterring conflict, underpinning peacekeeping coalitions, and possibly in responding to proxy wars by other powers.

    Sep 12, 2017

  • Report

    Conflict Trends and Conflict Drivers: An Empirical Assessment of Historical Conflict Patterns and Future Conflict Projections

    Based on conflict projections through 2040, this report concludes that despite the generally declining incidence of armed conflict, the Army must prepare for conventional wars against other states as well as irregular warfare against nonstate actors.

    Sep 12, 2017

  • Report

    A More Peaceful World? Regional Conflict Trends and U.S. Defense Planning

    This report analyzes trends in violent conflict and their implications for defense planning. It presents models estimating levels of conflict to 2040 under different scenarios and suggests early warning indicators of potential increases in conflict.

    Sep 12, 2017

  • Report

    Understanding Conflict Trends: A Review of the Social Science Literature on the Causes of Conflict

    This report explores, through an extensive literature review, whether the extreme rarity of interstate war and reduced incidence of intrastate war represent permanent shifts in world politics or are a temporary aberration.

    Sep 12, 2017

  • Report

    Civic Engagement: How Can Digital Technology Encourage Greater Engagement in Civil Society?

    This Perspective explores the potential impacts that digital technologies may have on the nature of civic engagement and political processes, providing an overview of the opportunities and risks associated with the use of these technologies.

    Aug 7, 2017

  • Journal Article

    Value for Money: EU Programme Funding in the Field of Democracy and Rule of Law

    This report presents the findings of an analytical study prepared by RAND Europe for the Committee of Budgetary Control of the European Parliament which focuses on European Union programme funding in the field of democracy and rule of law .

    Jun 14, 2017

  • Iranian President Hassan Rouhani attends a welcoming ceremony at Vnukovo International Airport in Moscow, Russia, March 27, 2017

    Commentary

    Could Iran's Rouhani Lose?

    In this month's presidential election Rouhani is running against Ebrahim Raisi, a trusted member of the revolutionary establishment. The Iranian population continues to live under duress and may be open to new candidates. The Iran nuclear deal hasn't resulted in the great economic windfall Rouhani promised.

    May 3, 2017

  • French President Francois Hollande (L) walks with Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, President of Mali at the international conference center of Bamako ahead of the France-Africa summit in Bamako, Mali, January 14, 2017.

    Commentary

    What Mali Really Needs

    Mali needs more international engagement, as well as serious pressure on the Malian state to strengthen its hold on the country. The key will be helping beyond just security force assistance and conventional economic development aid; Mali needs help governing.

    Jan 23, 2017

  • People protest as electors gather to cast their votes amid allegations of Russian hacking to try to influence the U.S. presidential election in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, December 19, 2016

    Commentary

    Were Russian Hacks Really a Threat to American Democracy?

    The Russian attacks should be another wake up call about the relentless probing of America's digital assets by adversaries and the potential consequences of weak cyber defenses. But U.S. democracy appears to have survived safe and sound.

    Dec 30, 2016

  • The lobby of the CIA Headquarters Building in Langley, Virginia

    Commentary

    How Can We Be Sure Putin Hacked the Democrats?

    Did Russia conduct an election cyber campaign against America? There is likely no smoking gun. But there is presumably a preponderance of technical evidence, intelligence, and benefits to Moscow that points in that direction.

    Dec 16, 2016

  • The Hong Kong skyline at night

    Report

    Where Is Hong Kong Headed?

    Events such as the 2014 pro-democracy Umbrella Movement have shined a spotlight on Hong Kong—and prompted questions. What is the territory's significance to China? And what is its future trajectory?

    Dec 2, 2016

  • Events @ RAND Audio Podcast

    Multimedia

    Survey Says? Inside RAND's Election Poll

    In this Events @ RAND podcast, our panel of experts discusses the latest results of the RAND Presidential Election Panel Survey (PEPS), and what they might portend for Election Day.

    Oct 6, 2016

  • Report

    Social change and public engagement with policy and evidence

    This report offers an overview of emerging social trends which may affect public engagement with evidence and policy in Britain. It was produced to provide background for a workshop hosted by Sense about Science and the Nuffield Foundation.

    Oct 6, 2016

  • French President Francois Hollande and Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian review troops at the fort of Vincennes, France, July 25, 2016

    Commentary

    Emergencies: France, Mali, and Turkey Are Playing with Fire

    The leaders of France, Mali, and Turkey have declared formal states of emergency. France's Hollande and Mali's Keïta, while responding to real threats, are risking democracy. Erdogan appears to be targeting democracy and using Turkey's recent failed coup as a pretext.

    Aug 15, 2016

  • People hold banners during a March for Europe demonstration against Britain's decision to leave the European Union, in central London, Britain, July 2, 2016

    Commentary

    Time for a Do-Over on Brexit

    As the right of the UK voters to decide on EU membership should be respected, so should their right to change their minds. There is no reason to regard their choice to leave as irreversible.

    Jul 7, 2016

  • Multimedia

    Understanding Brexit

    RAND experts discuss the United Kingdom's historic vote to leave the European Union and the consequences for Britain, Europe, and the United States.

    Jul 6, 2016

  • Officials count the ballots after the polls are closed in Cairo, Egypt, June 17, 2012

    Commentary

    It's Too Soon to Write Off the Arab Spring as a Failure

    Pessimistically declaring the Arab Spring a failure in 2016 would be as naive as optimistically declaring it a success in 2011. Something comes next—but what?

    Jun 15, 2016

  • Diverse group of people standing in a circle

    Essay

    Taking the American Pulse This Election Season

    For the past decade, a unique RAND survey has asked Americans how they feel about the economic crisis, health care reform, and more. Now, it's focused on the 2016 presidential election.

    May 4, 2016

  • Members of the Tunisian parliament wave flags after approving the country's new constitution in Tunis, January 26, 2014

    Commentary

    Tunisia Is an Arab Spring Success Story

    Tunisia has not unraveled into civil war like Syria or Libya. It has not undergone a counter-revolution that returned it to the autocracy of its pre-revolution days, like Egypt has. Tunisia is fragile, but its success is vital to the long-term stability and societal health of the Middle East.

    Apr 21, 2016

  • Stickers are displayed at a polling station for the Wisconsin presidential primary election in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, April 5, 2016

    Commentary

    The Latest from the RAND Presidential Election Panel Survey

    RAND's panel survey examines voter attitudes, intentions, and choices, and how these change throughout the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Some sizeable shifts in positions occurred in survey results from December to March.

    Apr 7, 2016