Ryan Bauer

Ukraine Is a Breeding Ground for Russian PMCs

Moscow's desire for additional fighters in Ukraine has created a breeding ground for Russian private military company (PMC) development. This explosion of what are essentially private armies is not only shaping the battlefield in Ukraine; it could have devastating impacts long after this conflict ends.

How Russia's War in Ukraine Has Impacted Its Christian Image

Over the past decade, the Russian government has taken pains to present itself as a bastion of Christianity and traditional values. Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, however, there have been noticeable cracks in the receptivity to this messaging strategy.

What Does Africa Need Most Now: Russian Arms Sales or Good Vaccines?

Why is Russia's main export to Africa advanced conventional weapons at a time when other needs are so great? African leaders might think twice about aggressive Russian arms pitches and engagement of mercenaries, and prioritize measures to stem the COVID-19 pandemic and encourage economic growth.

Sanctions Targeting Russia's Defense Sector: Will They Influence Its Behavior?

In response to recent Russian cyber espionage, interference in U.S. elections, and the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, President Biden announced a new round of sanctions and expulsions of Russian officials. But will these sanctions hurt Russia's defense industry enough to curb the Kremlin's behavior?

Russia's Su-57 Heavy Fighter Bomber: Is It Really a Fifth-Generation Aircraft?

Russia's Su-57 aircraft has been in development since 2002 and is considered a key part of Russia's arms export industry as a fifth-generation fighter. Despite continued Russian efforts to sell the aircraft, it is unlikely that a fully developed and full production–ready Su-57 will be available for sale before the late 2020s.

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The Limits of Russian Manipulation: National Identity and the Origins of the War in Ukraine

Using the concept of national identity as a starting point, RAND researchers developed a framework in an effort to illuminate the underlying causes of Russian manipulation, Ukrainian resistance, and the Russia-Ukraine war.

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Risk-Informed Analysis of Transportation Worker Identification Credential Reader Requirements

This report assesses the cost-effectiveness of a U.S. Coast Guard rule that requires any facility handling certain dangerous cargoes to biometrically verify the identity of anyone accessing a secure area of that facility.

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The Role of Information in U.S. Concepts for Strategic Competition

A detailed enumeration of activities, a synthesis of expert consensus on challenges to gray zone competition, and a dynamic menu of solutions can enhance the U.S. competitive position in the gray zone and beyond.

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Impact of the U.S. and Allied Sanction Regimes on Russian Arms Sales

In this report, the authors examine Russian arms exports and the impact of sanctions designed to discourage third country purchases and raise the cost of future Russian malign interference in other nation-states.

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Command Narrative Smart Guide

This quick reference provides the big-picture basics for successful command narrative development and deployment.

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Developing, Disseminating, and Assessing Command Narrative: Anchoring Command Efforts on a Coherent Story

Drawing on the scientific literature and lessons learned from the joint force, the authors of this report describe best practices for the effective use of command narrative.

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The Risk-Mitigation Value of the Transportation Worker Identification Credential: A Comprehensive Security Assessment of the TWIC Program

The Transportation Worker Identification Credential (TWIC) is designed to enhance security at U.S. ports. This report provides the findings from an assessment of the TWIC program, along with the assessors' recommendations.

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The Emerging Risk of Virtual Societal Warfare: Social Manipulation in a Changing Information Environment

The evolution of advanced information environments is rapidly creating a new category of possible cyberaggression, which RAND researchers are calling virtual societal warfare in an analysis of the characteristics and future of this growing threat.